A Critical Six Weeks for Markets - Volatility is here!

The S&P 500 declined modestly last week but despite the declines, the market demonstrated impressive resilience as markets encountered numerous headwinds including China angst (regulation, Evergrande, etc.), earnings warnings, and tax hike headlines.

 But while the headlines last week were, on balance, negative, it was only incrementally so, and they more just highlighted the looming macro unknowns now facing markets rather than implying the out-look for stocks has deteriorated materially (which it has not).

As we start this week, the major takeaway from this two-plus-week “stall” in the rally is to realize that there are several potentially important events that will be resolved in the next 4-6 weeks—and they will determine whether the rally continues or re-verses.