1306 Papermill Pointe Way
Stocks overcame numerous headwinds during the past three months, including a resurgence in COVID cases, the Federal Reserve moving aggressively to end the current QE program, and a lack of additional stimulus from Washington, to hit new all-time highs in the fourth quarter and produce very strong returns for 2021.
December 21, 2021
The steepness of the declines in stocks over the past two days has elicited that question from clients, friends, and acquaintances, as following the Fed meeting from last Wednesday most assumed the market would melt up higher into year-end, yet quite the opposite has happened.
December 15, 2021
There is a long and well-documented history of politics influencing monetary policy, and every time it ends in some form of economic pain. We’re being reminded of that in Turkey as we speak, where government influence on monetary policy has collapsed the lira and unleashed awful inflation on Turkish citizens.
November 15, 2021
Stocks fell modestly last week, but despite it being the most cited reason, “inflation” was not why stocks dropped. Yes, the financial media was 100% focused on inflation (as were politicians in Washington), but it was actually rising Treasury yields and tech weakness that caused last week’s losses.
October 1, 2021
We hope this quarterly newsletter finds you and your family well.
The S&P 500 hit new all-time highs again in the third quarter as investors looked past a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. and instead focused on the positive combination of a resilient economic recovery, ongoing historic support from the Federal Reserve, and strong corporate earnings.
September 27, 2021
Stocks were again impressively resilient over the past week, as the Fed generally meeting expectations for tapering helped investors look past the multiple sources of volatility emanating from China. And we think that last week’s price action fully reinforces the point we have been making for a while now: Markets are likely going to get more volatile, but volatility does not automatically mean a correction.
September 21, 2021
Stocks dropped substantially on Monday but the out-sized declines in stocks do not mean that the Evergrande saga deteriorated (it did not, at least not from where it was on Friday), and as such our opinion on Evergrande (that it’s a China problem, not a contagion problem) remains intact.
September 20, 2021
The S&P 500 declined modestly last week but despite the declines, the market demonstrated impressive resilience as markets encountered numerous headwinds including China angst (regulation, Evergrande, etc.), earnings warnings, and tax hike headlines.
July 17, 2021
The broad stock market performance last week was worse than the S&P 500’s modest decline would imply. The reason for the weakness was clear: More erosion of our “Four Pillars” of the rally. But while further erosion is occurring, and this market is vulnerable to a pullback (especially if we get a new incremental negative headline), the four pillars still remain intact, ...
June 15, 2021
No Change Is Expected to Rate’s or the QE Program
There are two unknowns that will decide whether tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is hawkish (hawkish – Fed worried about inflation) or dovish (dovish – less worried about inflation and more about weak growth). First, how does the Fed admit it is talking about tapering QE? Secondly, do the “dots” show a rate hike sooner than expected.
May 24, 2021
After a year of constantly digesting positive events (Fed backstopping everything, CARES Act, electoral clarity, second stimulus, third stimulus, vaccination progress) the markets are transitioning to a new paradigm where (1) There isn’t a majorly positive event looming every three months, and (2) Some of the stimulus etc. will be dialed back, and that transition will be a process of starts and stops, and it likely will cause more volatility, which we saw that last week…
May 4, 2021
President Biden's proposed tax platform could lead to major changes to existing federal tax rules.....
April 9, 2021
Stocks dropped for most of last week (before Friday’s rebound) not because anything actually “negative” occurred, but instead because at 4,100+ in the S&P 500, investors have aggressively priced in a lot of things, including...
April 8, 2021
A Strong Start to the New YearWe hope this quarterly newsletter finds you and your family safe and healthy during these still- unprecedented times.
March 4, 2021
I wanted to share my thoughts on why rising yields are hitting tech so hard.
February 8, 2021
Is there such a thing as too much of a good thing in markets? We’re going to find out.
January 19, 2021
What a difference a year makes. Last year, about this time, the topic of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) was being widely discussed by the financial media, and largely disavowed by mainstream economists and government officials, including Treasury Secretary Mnuchin...
On Wednesday, the 10-year Treasury yield declined 5 basis points, the largest decline in several weeks, and the reason for the drop had nothing to do with stimulus expectations, COVID vaccines or central bank talk.
November 2, 2020
Optimism Drives Stocks in 3rd QuarterWe hope this quarterly newsletter finds you and your family safe and healthy during these unprecedented times.
August 13, 2020
As tech continues to outperform and almost single handedly support the entire market, we’ve been hearing a lot of discussion in the financial media about this being another “tech bubble.” Given that, we wanted to examine the growing number of similarities between now and the late 1990’s.
August 8, 2020
We began to cover the yield curve much more in depth last year as the 10s-2s yield curve spread threatened to fall below zero (more commonly referred to as inversion). And even though no one could foresee the outbreak of the coronavirus...
July 5, 2020
We hope this quarterly newsletter finds you and your family safe and healthy during these unprecedented times.
June 29, 2020
Americans who have been adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic may now be able to access retirement accounts to help cover daily expenses, penalty-free.
An “eye-popping” $2 trillion in cash has been stashed in deposit accounts at U.S. banks since the COVID-19 pandemic first hit the country in January.1
June 16, 2020
Investor sentiment turned negative last week, amid an increasing number of COVID-19 cases in states where reopening has been underway as well as a subdued economic forecast from the Federal Reserve.
We have cautioned that the expectation for a quick economic recovery has driven much of the recent stock market gains, and that if the expectation of a quick recovery was put in jeopardy, we could see a pullback in stocks. That’s partially what happened yesterday as stocks suffered their worst losses in weeks.
The COVID-19 stimulus bill includes relief for retirees by allowing all RMDs due in 2020 to be waived. You do not have to take your RMD, which in turn can reduce your 2020 tax bill.
Anyone with an RMD due in 2020 from a company plan, like your 401(k) or 403(b) plans, or an IRA, qualifies, including beneficiaries, and including those who turned age 70 1/2 in 2019 and were required to take their first RMD by April 1, 2020.
April 2, 2020
First and foremost, we hope this letter finds you, your family and loved ones healthy and safe.
Market volatility surged in the first quarter to levels last seen more than a decade ago during the financial crisis, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept the globe and prompted the partial shutdown of most major global economies, including the U.S., EU and most of Asia. But while the pandemic was the main cause of the historic volatility we’ve witnessed over the past several weeks, the coronavirus outbreak was not the only source of volatility in the markets during the first quarter, as geopolitics and domestic political developments also impacted markets over the past three months.
Feb 4, 2020
Let me start off by saying we will only focus on the market’s political opinion. Our opinion is immaterial and not reflected in this article. Everyone should make their own choice and vote for the candidate that best represents his or her values and interests. With...
Dec 26, 2019
The SECURE ACT (Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement ACT), was signed by President Trump on December 20, 2019 and set to go into effect January 1, 2020. This retirement legislation will impact many things and many people. We have listed five...
Dec 2, 2019
Stocks continued their relentless grind higher last week thanks to the usual suspect (non-specific, yet positive U.S.-China trade chatter). Yet the most important event of the week happened late-morning Friday and it’s a potentially trade negative, and that’s why...
Nov 22, 2019
Clearing the Fog: Where Are We on U.S.-China Trade? The headline noise surrounding U.S.-China trade and phase one has intensified over the past week, as conflicting headlines on the progress of negotiations are now hitting the tape daily. On Friday, Larry Kudlow...
Oct 18, 2019
Lost in all the focus on trade last week was a pretty significant move by the Fed, as the Fed announced a plan to begin buying Treasury bills every month, a move that prompted several financial news sites and analysts to declare that “QE” is back. But while the plan...
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